KEYNOTE: THE CHIEF ECONOMIST MACRO OUTLOOK ON GEOPOLITICAL TENSIONS AND KEY RISKS
- How vulnerable is the world to a black swan event given the interconnectedness of assets and the financial sector?
- Short term/long term consequences of the coronavirus.
- Emergence of China as a global superpower (both as investor and as a source of opportunity for investment)– what associated risks and opportunities for the world economy does this bring?
- Do we have the necessary skillset to assess these risks and also take advantage of opportunities
- China's Belt and Road initiative – how do EU, UK investors compete?
- Has the coronavirus impacted this initiative?
- Geopolitical tensions
- Trade tension between China and US
- Has Trump's trade wars made the US a more or less risky place to invest in?
- Which trends/events will influence the longer-term outlook?
- How will AI/Fintech influence the economy/outlook for insurers?
PANEL DISCUSSION: COVID-19 – WHAT IMPACT WILL THE VIRUS HAVE ON ASSETS AND HOW SHOULD INSURERS POSITION THEMSELVES IN THE COMING MONTHS TO WEATHER ANY STORM
- How have financial markets been impacted so far?
- Have markets responded in line with expectations when compared to similar historic scenarios?
- What, if any long-term impact on global growth trends can we expect?
- Will the outbreak be responsible for a global recession?
- How have insurers investment behavior changed as a result
- How do you position your portfolio to weather the storm?
- What lessons have we learned that will influence the way we respond from an investment perspective in the case of a further similar pandemic risk?
Paneliist: Prasun Mathur, Private Assets Lead, Aviva UK
Panellist: Nick Dixon, Investment Director, Aegon UK
INVESTMENT LEADERS PANEL: KEY INVESTMENT RISKS AND STRATEGIC PORTFOLIO POSITIONING
- What do you anticipate to be the biggest threats to the asset side of your balance sheet over the coming 12 months
- How are you readying your portfolio in anticipation?
- Which factors are influencing your investment decisions and how are you responding??
- Monetary policies, political risk and geopolitical uncertainties, regulatory risk, ESG drivers, economic cycle, Brexit?
- Is a Negative Brexit outcome still a realistic conclusion and if so, where does that leave us?
- Is in-house or outsourcing the answer to these challenges?
- The insurance business cycle in the context of a low yield/low interest rate environment
- How has the insurance business model changed due to low yield and low interest rate environment both in recent time and historically?
- If we are set to remain in a low yield/low interest rate environment for a prolonged time, what is a sustainable business model and what is it contingent on?
- Do we feel we have been pushed into an illiquid/higher risk strategy against our better judgement – how well protected are we now should rates rise again?
- How do we need to change our behavior? Should we be looking to change our approach on the liability side instead of the investment side?
- As insurers are filling their balance sheet with long-term illiquid loans, should insurers be more bank-like in assessing credit? Should they and can they outsource credit decisioning within a simple mandate?
Panellist: Wim Vermeir, Chief Investment Offier, AG Insurance & Group Head of Investments, Ageas
Panellist: Antonio Tedesco, Head of Group ALM and SAA, Generali
Panellist: Massimo Di Tria, Group Chief Investment Officer, Cattolica Assicurazioni (Subject to final confirmation)
Moderator: Russell Busst, CEO Conning Asset Management Ltd and European CIO
Morning Coffee Break
PLENARY: TRADE FINANCE
Speaker: Chris McGinley, Federated Hermes
PANEL: ASSESSING CLIMATE ASSOCIATED ASSET RISK – WHAT TOOLS AND APPROACHES ARE AVAILABLE AND HOW EFFECTIVE ARE THEY?
- How beneficial and enduring will the EU ESG taxonomy prove to be?
- How could the taxonomy be further developed/enhanced?
- TCFD recommendations – should these be compulsory or voluntary?
- How far down the supply chain should you analyse and apply ESG criteria?
- How do you come up with your own view of what is green and what isn't green?
- Identifying green washing – do you look-through to see what is labeled as green and if so, how?
- PRA stress tests – to what extent are the stress tests helpful in understanding risks to the balance sheet and in understanding the impact of climate risk on assets?
- Using climate VaR to assess vulnerabilities in assets.
- What 3rd party help/tools/data is available?
- What key financial risks arising from the climate impact on physical risks have you identified and how are you approaching/managing these risks?
- What in practice does an investment strategy look like that respects the 2 degree threshold?
- What data/tools are available to help track progress against the 2 degree target?
Panellist: Russ Bowdrey, Senior ALM Manager, Aviva (subject to final confirmation)
Speaker: Johanna Köb, Head of Responsible Investment, Zurich Insurance Company Ltd. (Subject to final confirmation)
Panellist: Corrado Pistarino, Chief Investment Officer, Foresters Friendly Society
KEYNOTE ADDRESS: NEXT STEPS TOWARDS MEETING THE 2050 CARBON NEUTRALITY GOAL – THE CIO PERSPECTIVE
- Are we currently doing enough to meet that target or do the current measures fall short?
- How do we transition to the next larger goal in the battle against climate risk?
- How does policy and regulation need to change in order to meet that goal?
Keynote speaker: Lars Haram, CIO & Head of Asset Management, Oslo Pensjonsforsikring
IDEAS EXCHANGE: SMALL BREAK-OUT GROUPS FOR A FACILITATED ROUNDTABLE DISCUSSION PROPOSED ROUNDTABLE DISCUSSION IDEAS INCLUDE:
- Efficient ways to extend duration under Solvency II
- Outsourcing vs. in-house
- Managing currency risk
- How can insurance firms be more agile?
- Fin tech and technology Investments
- Libor transition
- Assessing opportunities in emerging market debt
- Real Assets – opportunities and challenges around real estate and infrastructure
PANEL: POLICY, REGULATION AND THE INSURANCE INDUSTRY OUTLOOK POST-BREXIT
- What are the key priorities for regulators and policy setters?
- How are regulators monitoring and managing the threat from a prolonged low interest rate environment?
- Initial market reactions during this initial transition phase?
- What will be the key implications for UK and European Insurers post-Brexit?
- How will EU economies be impacted and what will this mean for EU exposures and asset risk and asset performance?
- What investment opportunities and risks do we see emerging from this new era?
- How is the ABI, Bank of England/PRA and FCA interacting across range of issues.
- How do UK regulators expect to co-ordinate post-Brexit with European regulators?
- How will alignment with regard to SII and Climate risk work post-Brexit?
Panellist; Andrew Bailey, Director of Financial Risk, Just Group plc
Afternoon Coffee Break
PANEL DISCUSSION: SOLVENCY II IN REVIEW
- Long-term equity investment
- What has been the response to this new asset class? What impact has this had on insurers' appetite for private equity markets?
- What further clarity and guidance over implementation questions is required /can we expect in order for more insurers to take advantage of this new opportunity?
- The 2020 Solvency II review -
- Update on expected timelines.
- What can and should we expect in future changes?
- Spotlight on key areas for review:
- Matching adjustment
- Volatility adjustment
- Negative interest rates stress test
- Green capital risk charges?
- How might future changes translate into portfolio management?
Panellist: Lauri Saraste, Director, ALM and Solvency, LocalTapiola Life
INVESTMENT LEADERS PANEL: WHERE ARE INSURERS LOOKING TO NEXT FOR INVESTMENT OPPORTUNITY?
- Challenges around asset origination
- Which asset classes are in favour and which are making you cautious?
- As private equity, real estate, infrastructure become more mainstream, which asset classes now constitute "alternative" and are accessible to insurers?
- How are insurers approaching opportunities in timberland, ILS etc?
- Developments in the asset reinsurance market
Panellist: James Kenney, Head of Capital Management, Legal and General Capital
Panellist: Grigory Spivak, Director, Asset Re, Pacific Life Re